Mountains – New Caelifera

March 12, 2015

When Will Highway 20 Open In 2015?

The Washington State Department of Transportation has announced that they will begin the clearing of Highway 20 on March 16. Which leads us to our favorite game: “when will highway 20 open?” Last year I got within 3 days of the correct date. I’ve added the data from last year to produce a new chart of opening day versus snow depth at Swamp creek snowtel along with an updated trend line
This year the snow depth at the snowtel on 3/1/2015 was a paltry 29 inches. This is the fourth lowest snow total in the data set, and leads to the prediction that Highway 20 will open April 5. That seems amazingly early, and late season storms could certainly throw a wrench in an early date, but that’s my prediction, crazy as it sounds.

Update: Actual date was April 3.

Posted on March 12, 2015
When Will Highway 20 Open In 2015?

The Washington State Department of Transportation has announced that they will begin the clearing of Highway 20 on March 16. Which leads us to our favorite game: “when will highway 20 open?” Last year I got within 3 days of the correct date. I’ve added the data from last year to produce a new chart of opening day versus snow depth at Swamp creek snowtel along with an updated trend line
This year the snow depth at the snowtel on 3/1/2015 was a paltry 29 inches. This is the fourth lowest snow total in the data set, and leads to the prediction that Highway 20 will open April 5. That seems amazingly early, and late season storms could certainly throw a wrench in an early date, but that’s my prediction, crazy as it sounds.

Update: Actual date was April 3.

Posted on March 12, 2015
When Will Highway 20 Open In 2015?

The Washington State Department of Transportation has announced that they will begin the clearing of Highway 20 on March 16. Which leads us to our favorite game: “when will highway 20 open?” Last year I got within 3 days of the correct date. I’ve added the data from last year to produce a new chart of opening day versus snow depth at Swamp creek snowtel along with an updated trend line
This year the snow depth at the snowtel on 3/1/2015 was a paltry 29 inches. This is the fourth lowest snow total in the data set, and leads to the prediction that Highway 20 will open April 5. That seems amazingly early, and late season storms could certainly throw a wrench in an early date, but that’s my prediction, crazy as it sounds.

Update: Actual date was April 3.

Posted on January 1, 2015
Sunset

A beautiful sunset Dec 30, 2014 from New Caelifera. May 2015 bring you great happiness!

Posted on January 1, 2015
Sunset

A beautiful sunset Dec 30, 2014 from New Caelifera. May 2015 bring you great happiness!

Posted on May 27, 2014
New Caelifera Memorial Day 2014

Memorial day weekend. Tourists galore! Local economy++, tranquility–. Up Gunn Ranch road, however, the universe was about the same as before. Perhaps even fewer cars than winter cross country ski season.

The outdoor ceiling is finished modulo a bit in the back and some detail work.

Drywall in, floors done, but covered, next up cedar siding:

Planning for circular driveway and landscaping

A green time of year:

Choosing a patina for the doors

It’s not an adventure if you don’t have a stick and a feather

View from Test Dog creek

Metal meets wood meets sky

Garage

Can’t wait until we can take the plastic off the windows and the patio is installed

Mt Gardner and locust tree

Posted on April 28, 2014
April Trip

Late April, the arrow leaf basalm root is starting to blanket the hills. Here Riser lake is joined by Mt Gardner and hundreds of flowers.

The grill flue has been installed and rusted:

Cedar siding installed

Ceiling installed

Shots from a distance

Flue awaits the Argentinian grill

Big rock surrounded by flowers. I scared a grouse from under the rock who then scared the bejesus out of me.

Test dog creek flowing

Posted on April 9, 2014
When Will Highway 20 Open in 2014?

Every year the opening of Highway 20 through the North Cascades National Park heralds a phase transition in the population density of the Methow Valley. From our home in Seattle to Winthrop this is the difference between 247 miles and 202 miles. For beautiful pictures of this years plowing of the road, see the WSDOT’s flickr page. Since the opening of the pass brings business, and busyness, locales like to try to predict the date it will open. So when will it open this year?

Here is a plot of the day of the year the road opened, and snow depth at the Swamp Creek snotel station on 3/1 of that year:

I’ve also calculated a least squares fit and plotted value of this fit for the given snow depth. Using this fit, and the fact that on 3/1 of this year there was 73 inches of snow, I can therefore predict, with absolute certainty (ha!) that Highway 20 will open on day 132 of this year, or May 12. A very late opening.

Posted on September 4, 2013
Labor Day Trip

Camping trip over the Labor day weekend. 10 car backups at the Winthrop 4-way stop!

Construction progressing. Setting up to put in the footings:

Here is a view in relationship to the new cut for the garage

Speaking of which here is the cut for the garage and outlines for the footings

View with trees sanding on the big pile of dirt they excavated.

Speaking of which the excavation uncovered a ton of pretty large rocks, including this beauty

Which we hope to have hauled down to the entrance to our lot to put our address numbering on. Closeup of the rock shows its been moved at some time its geologic past

On Sunday afternoon I hiked up Lewis Butte (about 700 feet) for a nice view of the site from above

View of the old Hasse homestead(?)

Up top with a view back to the Rendezvous

Obligatory Mt. Gardner photo

Coming back down with a view of site and Riser Lake

The fields of grass and brush go for a long ways

Posted on February 19, 2013
Photos from Presidents day trip

Quick trip over to meet with potential builders. A few pictures:

There is water down this there well:

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