New Caelifera

New Caelifera

modern methow cabin

When Will Highway 20 Open in 2014?

Every year the opening of Highway 20 through the North Cascades National Park heralds a phase transition in the population density of the Methow Valley. From our home in Seattle to Winthrop this is the difference between 247 miles and 202 miles. For beautiful pictures of this years plowing of the road, see the WSDOT’s flickr page. Since the opening of the pass brings business, and busyness, locales like to try to predict the date it will open. So when will it open this year?

Here is a plot of the day of the year the road opened, and snow depth at the Swamp Creek snotel station on 3/1 of that year:
hw20
I’ve also calculated a least squares fit and plotted value of this fit for the given snow depth. Using this fit, and the fact that on 3/1 of this year there was 73 inches of snow, I can therefore predict, with absolute certainty (ha!) that Highway 20 will open on day 132 of this year, or May 12. A very late opening.

New Caelifera Rises!

March trip.  Lots and lots of progress…for the first time you can really get a feel for how things are fitting together.  Here is the south side…steel siding is being rusted by a combination of vinegar and salt.

image

East wall is more rusted:

image

Inside the view is amazing even through the plastic still on the windows:

image

So glad we have two doors to open up this area onto the big patio they will be pouring:

image

Distance shots

image image image

Wall of windows:

image

Test Dog creek wasn’t running, but second seasonal creek was

image

Entry awning/canopy

image

Google auto awesome shows Gusty surveying the land

image

Siding with cedar has begun

image

But lots more to go:

image

Hot cold faucet… Love the metal surround

image

More siding detail:

image

Building is complicated:

image

This is working out to be one of my favorite views.  Its hard to see Mt Garner against the white of the clouds here, but this black metal frames it like a picture and its awe inspiring:

image

admin March 18, 2014 1 Comment Permalink

Entry Awning

Installation of the entry awning.  So much more snow than when we were over last.

image image image image

admin February 25, 2014 Leave A Comment Permalink

Methow Valley Olympians: What are the Odds?

Three athletes with roots in the Methow Valley are on the U.S. Olympic team for the 2014 Sochi Olympics,:the brother and sister duo of Sadie and Erik Bjornsen,¬†and Brian Gregg, who grew up in the valley but now resides in Minnesota.  What are the odds?

There 230 members of the U.S. Olympic team.  The population of the United States is about 310 million.  So the odds of a single person selected at random from the U.S. being a 2014 U.S. Olympic athlete is 230/310000000 or about one in every one and a half million people.  Call this probability p.

There are about 5000 people in the Methow Valley. Then the probability of there being exactly one U.S. Olympic athlete in the Methow Valley is 5000*p*(1-p)^4999 or about 0.0037.  One in 270 ish, not that crazy. 

The probability of there being exactly two U.S. Olympic athletes in the Methow Valley is 5000*4999*p^2*(1-p)^4998 or about 0.000014.  One in about 730000.  Nearly the same odds as a dealt royal straight flush in five card poker.

The probability of there being exactly three U.S. Olympic athletes in the Methow Valley is 5000*4999*4998*p^3(1-p)^4997 or about 0.00000005 or one in twenty million.  This is just less than the odds of winning a lottery where you have to correctly choose 6 numbers between 1 and 49.  Congrats Methow Valley on winning the U.S. Olympic lottery :)

admin February 9, 2014 2 Comments Permalink

Frosty Aspens

Today the aspens had a thick layer of frost, aided by the fog.  Standing under them ting ting as the ice fell off the trees.
image

wpid-IMG_20140120_103919448.jpg image image image image

admin January 21, 2014 Leave A Comment Permalink

Framed!

We have framing for the roof:
image

This wall is really tall.  The sliding door that covers it may require an adult to move:
image

Long library.  Left is Max’s bunk:
image

Kitchen area.
image

Steel beam.  More welding needed to secure
image

Windows for the master, bath and bunk room:
image

Very little snow, but lots of frost.
image

Aspens and library window
image

Windows in main room go in next
image

Bunk room
image

Bathroom windows
image

Hole for grill flue
image

Max’s bunk juts out.  This will all be metal and there will be a metal awning out from Max’s bunk box
image

Lots of patio out this direction
image

View from outside shower
image

admin January 20, 2014 4 Comments Permalink

admin January 16, 2014 Leave A Comment Permalink

Skiing in the Backyard

2013 was one of the better snow seasons over in the Methow valley in quite a few years. When we visited last year in January I definitely wish I’d had my skis with me. Last night I stumbled upon a video on Amazon Instant of some skiing from last year: Frontcountry Dreams – Ski Touring Out Your Front Door in the Methow Valley The section of the video starting at about 4:45 is basically skiing into the backyard of New Caelifera (southwest Lewis Butte). Thanks Dr Telemark!

admin January 11, 2014 Leave A Comment Permalink

admin December 22, 2013 Leave A Comment Permalink