Is fame and fortune what you seek (or at least fame)? Be a first mover, according to a new paper, arXiv:0809.0522
The first-mover advantage in scientific publication
Authors: M. E. J. Newman
Mathematical models of the scientific citation process predict a strong “first-mover” effect under which the first papers in a field will, essentially regardless of content, receive citations at a rate enormously higher than papers published later. Moreover papers are expected to retain this advantage in perpetuity — they should receive more citations indefinitely, no matter how many other papers are published after them. We test this conjecture against data from a selection of fields and in several cases find a first-mover effect of a magnitude similar to that predicted by the theory. Were we wearing our cynical hat today, we might say that the scientist who wants to become famous is better off — by a wide margin — writing a modest paper in next year’s hottest field than an outstanding paper in this year’s. On the other hand, there are some papers, albeit only a small fraction, that buck the trend and attract significantly more citations than theory predicts despite having relatively late publication dates. We suggest that papers of this kind, though they often receive comparatively few citations overall, are probably worthy of our attention.
Guess what field was used as an example for this effect? Network theory.
You want a first mover, I’ll give you a first mover:
REPUBLICAN CLASS (AND RACE?) WAR.
“The Harvard-educated couple that the Democrats want to install in the White House are part of an elitist, “uppity” class, a Republican congressman said Thursday.
Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, a two-term Republican who represents some of Atlanta’s suburbs, commented about class when asked about the performances under pressure of his party’s vice presidential nominee, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and the Democratic nominee’s wife, Michelle Obama, as they introduced themselves to the nation in their separate convention speeches.
“Honestly, I’ve never paid that much attention to Michelle Obama,” Westmoreland said. “Just what little I’ve seen of her and Senator [Barack] Obama, is that they’re a member of an elitist class…that thinks that they’re uppity.”
Palin was tough and mocking. This election is not going to be a cake-walk. I read so many people saying what “Obama” should do. You should give money to Obama if you can, and work for the campaign if you can.
Being the first mover does give one an advantage, but you don’t want to move too early. Wasn’t the physicist Nambu notorious for developing ideas that wouldn’t be adopted for years. Needless to say, the folks who adopted his ideas got the credit because their work was more timely. Another interesting example was Marvin Minsky and the confocal microscope. He built the first, but no one built a second for decades. Now it’s a laboratory workhorse.