Freeriding on the Back of a Giant While Slapping the Giant Upside the Face

Somedays I just simply can’t take it anymore and would like to see nothing more than the banning of all my anti-science bretheren from using all of the benefits which science has brought to the world. Don’t believe in science, FINE, don’t use anything science helps discover. I’ll be happy to take the other side of the coin and agree to not benefit from any drug invented by some evolution doubting creationist or other such creature.
In the local UW rag: “The Daily”

Is intelligent design that scary?
As Jared Silvia states in “So what if we are monkeys?” (May 5) we indeed are “truly special.”
We are special enough to understand, as legislators in Kansas have grasped, that evolution is not the end-all it proposes to be. These legislators have realized since science will never be able to prove or disprove the evolutionary process, there must be another pertinent argument out there.
Contrary to what Silvia says, the theory of evolution is easy to wrap one’s mind around. It’s easy to look at dinosaurs, fossils and apes and draw conclusions that we are the apex of a long chain of evolution. What is hard is proving this fact. Where are the laws of science (the second law of thermodynamics), the DNA sequences, or the evidence of transitionary species (like the humans with no eyes) that prove evolution is the truth?
The Kansas legislators must have come to the same conclusions a lot of astronomers have come to recently when looking at the galaxies of the universe. These things may have been created by intelligent design.
Science can neither prove nor disprove evolution, so let’s stop the scientific and educational community from favoring only the theory of evolution. Is it such a bad thing to juxtapose one “theory” with another to facilitate a balanced discussion, as we will hopefully see during the future in Kansas?
John Messner, senior, history

When I see dribble like this I always think of my favorite theory which explain the universe. It involves lots of pink elephants, psycho grandmothers, gay sex, and arguments that Jesus was an athiest. And of course, it’s a possible explanation for all the experimental data (you really don’t want me to give the full theory do you? I’ll bet anyone I can turn any set of four items into an alternative explanation of the theory of evolution.) So please, Mr. Messner, let me teach my theory to all those young little minds and I’ll be glad to teach your intelligent design theory.
And then, to make my day even brighter, I find in Nature:

Academics stress licence threat to US science
Geoff Brumfiel, Washington
Alarms ring over rules for foreign nationals and ‘sensitive’ equipment.
Proposed changes to an obscure set of export rules could derail US research, say academic and industrial groups, who are now frantically trying to raise the alarm among scientists.
The modified rules would require academic researchers from countries including China and India to obtain a government licence before operating a wide range of lab equipment in the United States. In a 22 April letter to university department chairs, Judy Franz, executive officer of the American Physical Society, warned that the changes constitute a “potential threat to research”. And this week, the National Academies are convening a special workshop to inform scientists of the proposed changes.
At issue is a set of rules governing the export of sensitive technologies. Known as the Export Administration Regulations, the rules are meant to limit the transfer of equipment that could advance the military might of ‘countries of concern’ — a list that includes China, India, Pakistan and Russia. The regulations also require researchers from these countries working with some items of equipment to obtain a licence from the US Department of Commerce.
Traditionally, universities have thought themselves exempt from the regulations. But a March 2004 report from the Department of Commerce’s Office of Inspector General, an independent watchdog, argued that the regulations do apply to academic labs. The report also proposed expanding the criteria under which a licence would be required for using controlled equipment, and applying the rules by country of birth rather than country of citizenship (see Nature 431, 615; 2004).
The 45-page equipment list includes common lab apparatus such as lasers and sealed glove boxes for handling hazardous material. Getting a licence for each potential user would overwhelm lab supervisors, warns Dan Mote, president of the University of Maryland, who is scheduled to talk at a National Academies workshop. “This really is potentially devastating,” he says. “It’s quite conceivable that this would just bring work to a halt.”
Industry is also concerned, according to Cynthia Johnson, director of government relations for Texas Instruments, a major US semiconductor manufacturer. Although industrial labs already have to comply with the rules, the proposal to base the regulations on a researcher’s country of birth rather than citizenship could alienate fresh talent, she says.
Department of Commerce officials stress that they are still far from making a final decision about how to modify the rules. “What we are doing is seeking input,” says Peter Lichtenbaum, assistant secretary for export administration.
That is why it is important for researchers to weigh in with their objections, says Arthur Bienenstock, a physicist and dean of research and graduate policy at Stanford University in California. “What the Department of Commerce needs is an honest assessment of what it would mean if the inspector-general’s rules were implemented,” he says. The comment period closes on 27 May
Nature 435, 4 (5 May 2005).

Yeah! Let’s demolish the research universities! Yeah!
And of course, today, in Kansas, even Todo is spinning in his grave as the Kansas State Board of Education seems to be unaware that there are vast legions of scientists out there who are extending their lives by developing drugs whose validity across species is explicitly searched for using the theory of evolution. Instead they choose to call hearings which are boycotted by scientists and say such amazing things as

“It’s intellectually stimulating,” said board Chairman Steve Abrams, of Arkansas City, one of the three presiding members. “It’s good information.”

Oh, and one more thing. If I see the theory of evolution called the theory of the origin of life one more time, I’m simply, well, I’m simply going to explode.

Information in Economics

Yesterday I attended a talk by Ed Thorpe. Ed not only wrote the highly influential book “Beat the Dealer” where card counting for blackjack was first popularized but he also did work which anticipated the Black-Scholes model of options pricing (and in fact was trading using the basic formula before the formula was even written down) and has been part of one of the earliest hedge funds which had annualized returns of around 30 percent over nearly thirty years.
In his talk yesterday, Ed discussed how the efficient market hypothesis is wrong via numerous examples. The efficient market hypothesis asserts that stock prices are determined by a discounting process such that they equal the discounted value (present value) of expected future cash flows. Whenever you hear a talk about the efficient market hypoethsis (including Ed’s today) you always hear that part of the rational which leads towards this hypothesis is that prices reflect all known information. Now whenever I hear this, I feel like I want to crawl up into a ball and cry because I have a hard time connecting this statement with the information I am familiar with (Shannon et. al.) and also what it means to have “all” information. What in the world is “all” information? Do I need to know the wavefunction of everyone envolved? Sheesh. No wonder why traders like to give efficient market hypothesizers a bad time.

Probability of Greatness

An amusing anecdote from cond-mat 0305150 by Simikin and Roychowdhury:

During the “Manhattan project” (the making of nuclear bomb[sic]), Fermi asked Gen. Groves, the head of the project, what is the definition of a “great” general. Groves replied that any general who had won five battles in a row might safely be called great. Fermi then asked how many generals were great. Groves said about three out of every hundred. Fermi conjectured that considering that opposing forces for most battles are rougly equal in strength, the chance of winning one battle is 1/2 and the chance of winning five battles in a row is (1/2)^5=1/32. “So your right General, about three out of every hundred. Mathematical probability, not genius.”

Breeding Books

In today’s age of online scientific publishing, it’s hard to remember the days when one would have to trudge to the library to do significant research. Even harder to think about are the days before the printing press, when books were translated by hand. In those old days, knowledge moved slowly and truly such work must have been a labor of love (two good words, scrivener: “a professional or public copyist or writer” and scriptorium: “a copying room for the scribes in a medieval monastery.” Scrivener, of course, is probably most famously known from the short story Bartleby the Scrivener by Herman Melville.) And when we think about it a bit, we realize that the resemblence between copying books and the other labor of love, having children, is more than just superficial. Indeed, in order for a book to be born, a previous copy must exist. Similarly books are destroyed over a given of years. A little more sophisticated model suggests that the birth rate for books will not be constant but will decrease as the number of books saturates “the market.” Thus we can map the growth and survival rates of books as a function of time.
In this months Science (307, p. 1305-1307 , 2005) John Cisne proposes just such a model for the survival of books during the Middle Ages. What Cisne finds is that indeed the age distributions of books surviving today predicted by a simple population dynamic model indeed appear to be correct. So here are some cool numbers:

…manuscripts were about 15 to 30 times more likely to be copied as to be destroyed and had a half-life of four to nine centuries, and that population’s doubling time was on the order of two to three decades.

I wonder if one of the reasons why science didn’t advance as much during the Middle Ages was that this long doubling time (two to three decades) ment that it was very unlikely that the fruits of your hard work producing a book would not be disseminated during your lifetime. Think if you could work on science but that the implications of your work wouldn’t ever be reveal until long after your death. The invention of the printing press sure was a marvelous event, wasn’t it?

Second Hand News

You know blogs are taking off when you’re in the airport listening to the audio of one of the 24 hour news stations and you listen as they report not on the news directly, as one might expect from their name, but on “what the blogs are reporting.” Ugh.

Improv and Smart Lunches

Anyone who has seen good improv must immediately wonder how it is that the actors are able to pull of their trade of theater without preset form. One of the key tenets of improv is the notion of “acceptance.” The basic idea is that when carrying out dialogue one should accept what the other person says and not contradict it. Contradiction will quickly lead one down to a dead-end. You should take what the other actors are saying and make something of it.
When I first read about this doctrine of acceptance in improv I was immediately sure that I’d witnessed this before. Where? While having lunch with groups of scientists. When you get the right combination of smart people together, one of their favority pasttimes is constructing dialogues where someone says something like “wouldn’t it be interesting if….?” and then the rest of the group takes up this “if” and simply goes with it. And if you get a really smart group of people together these rides can be among the funniest and most interesting conversations you will ever have. I noticed this effect quite a lot as an undergraduate at Caltech: students would simply sit around and B.S., but they would B.S. in this very strange manner of accepting something and then taking it further and further with each person accepting the previous idea and pushing it even further.
So, while the stereotype says scientists are barely capable of dialogue (and this is certainly not far from the truth for many in everyday conversation), I would claim that scientists are also among the most versatile improv actors in the world.

Reality TV Show Needs Scientists

From a Caltech postdoc mailing list:

I am working on two science show teasers for Discovery and we are looking for a couple of articulate, passionate scientists who would be interested in appearing in reality television. The first show is called “Get Out of There” in which we recreate survival situations that actually occured and two scientists have to figure out how to get out/survive. The second show is called “Brain vs. Brawn” in which two contestants are both given the same challenge and one is coached on how to accomplish it by a scientist and the other by a non-scientist. The challenge we will be shooting for the pilot/teaser will be fire-walking, so ideally we will have scientist who can explain the physics behind it and the other will be a new agey-type who will focus on a more mind over matter approach. If you can recommend anyone, please contact: *******

(if you really want to know who to contact, please email me.)

Spinning Darwin in his Grave

In my never ceasing effort to increase stereotyping, I present, for you, a recent Gallup poll about American views on the theory of evolution:

Subgroup

% Who Believe that Darwin’s Theory of Evolution
Is a Scientific Theory Well Supported by the Evidence

Postgraduate education 65%
Liberal 56
College graduate 52
West 47
Seldom, never attend church 46
Catholics 46
50- to 64-year-olds 44
Men 42
East 42
18- to 29-year-olds 41
Independent 40
Democrat 38
Moderate 36
   
SAMPLE AVERAGE 35
   
Nearly weekly church attendance 35
30- to 49-year-olds 34
Some college 32
Women 30
Republican 29
Midwest 29
Protestant 28
South 27
Conservative 26
Weekly church attendance 22
Age 65+ 21
High school or less 20

This data makes me think maybe we need another 1960s cultural revolution. Well, truthfully I always think that…