Today I decided that I wanted to calculate the probability that the god of christianity exists.
\nIf I took a poll of the average citizen of the United States I’d get something like a 75% probability that he exists.
\nBut wait, you object, the United States is not a fair representative sample from which to make so bold of statement about the existence or nonexistence of a christian god. OK, so why don’t we take a poll over the entire planet Earth? Then the probability of a christian god drops to something around 33%.
\nBut wait again, you object, we need a fairer representative than the people of earth. What about other inhabitants of our galaxy? Well Jesus was spreading the gospel 2000 years ago, so his message (traveling at the speed of light) could only have traveled 2000 light years. This is enough to cover around (2000\/50000)^2 = 0.16% of the Galaxy (we overcount due to the higher density at the center, but, oh well.) Thus we conclude that the probability of a christian god existing is 0.16%.
\nNow just you wait one more time! We live in a universe, not in a galaxy! The number of galaxies in the universe is something like 100 billion. So the probability of a christian god existing goes down to 0.0000000000016%.
\nFor comparison, the chance of winning the California Lotto is 0.000007%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Today I decided that I wanted to calculate the probability that the god of christianity exists. If I took a poll of the average citizen of the United States I’d get something like a 75% probability that he exists. But wait, you object, the United States is not a fair representative sample from which to … <\/p>\n