{"id":2294,"date":"2009-05-04T13:28:15","date_gmt":"2009-05-04T20:28:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/?p=2294"},"modified":"2009-05-04T13:28:15","modified_gmt":"2009-05-04T20:28:15","slug":"technical-analysis-as-an-indicator","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/2009\/05\/04\/technical-analysis-as-an-indicator\/","title":{"rendered":"Technical Analysis as an Indicator"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Personally I&#8217;m very skeptical of technical analysis, but that&#8217;s just because I am skeptical of easy answers.  But try to parse this article over at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=aM76hi1IDeOo&amp;refer=home\">bloomberg<\/a> titled &#8220;Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&amp;P Miss.&#8221;  <br \/>\n<!--more--><br \/>\nWe begin with <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Ever since the Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s 500 Index peaked in October 2007, six of eight strategies &#8212; which are supposed to make money whether stocks rise or fall &#8212; failed, according to back-testing data compiled by Bloomberg. As the bear market erased $11 trillion from the value of U.S. equities, buy and sell signals from those six technical indicators produced losses of as much as 49 percent, the data show. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Spot something of interest in the wording there?  The idea that the techniques used are &#8220;supposed to make money whether stocks rise or fail&#8221; is, well, a pretty high standard (especially during a 50 percent nose dive in the S&amp;P 500.)  Now move to the end of the article where some tables of data are presented:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<pre>\nIndicator                              10\/09\/2007 - 3\/09\/2009\nRelative Strength Index                                -49.0%\nWilliams %R                                            -41.7%\nCommodity Channel Index                                -38.7%\nParabolic Systems                                      -36.6%\nBollinger Bands                                        -31.5%\nStochastics                                            -24.1%\nDirectional Movement Indicator                         +24.0%\nMoving Average Convergence\/Divergence                  +25.9%\nS&amp;P 500                                                -56.8%\n<\/pre>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Personally I&#8217;m very skeptical of technical analysis, but that&#8217;s just because I am skeptical of easy answers. But try to parse this article over at bloomberg titled &#8220;Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&amp;P Miss.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2294","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2294"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2294\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2294"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2294"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/pontiff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2294"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}