{"id":1630,"date":"2014-02-09T00:58:21","date_gmt":"2014-02-09T00:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/?p=690"},"modified":"2014-02-09T00:58:21","modified_gmt":"2014-02-09T00:58:21","slug":"methow-valley-olympians-what-are-the-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/2014\/02\/09\/methow-valley-olympians-what-are-the-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Methow Valley Olympians: What are the Odds?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Three athletes with roots in the Methow Valley are on the U.S. Olympic team for the 2014 Sochi Olympics,:the brother and sister duo of Sadie and Erik Bjornsen,\u00a0and Brian Gregg, who grew up in the valley but now resides in Minnesota.&nbsp; What are the odds?<\/p>\n<p>There <a href=\"http:\/\/www.teamusa.org\/2014teamusa\">230<\/a> members of the U.S. Olympic team.&nbsp; The population of the United States is about 310 million.&nbsp; So the odds of a single person selected at random from the U.S. being a 2014 U.S. Olympic athlete is 230\/310000000 or about one in every one and a half million people.&nbsp; Call this probability p.<\/p>\n<p>There are about 5000 people in the Methow Valley. Then the probability of there being exactly one U.S. Olympic athlete in the Methow Valley is 5000*p*(1-p)^4999 or about 0.0037.&nbsp; One in 270 ish, not that crazy.&nbsp; <\/p>\n<p>The probability of there being exactly two U.S. Olympic athletes in the Methow Valley is 5000*4999*p^2*(1-p)^4998 or about 0.000014.&nbsp; One in about 730000.&nbsp; Nearly the same odds as a dealt royal straight flush in five card poker.<\/p>\n<p>The probability of there being exactly three U.S. Olympic athletes in the Methow Valley is 5000*4999*4998*p^3(1-p)^4997 or about 0.00000005 or one in twenty million.&nbsp; This is just less than the odds of winning a lottery where you have to correctly choose 6 numbers between 1 and 49.&nbsp; Congrats Methow Valley on winning the U.S. Olympic lottery \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three athletes with roots in the Methow Valley are on the U.S. Olympic team for the 2014 Sochi Olympics,:the brother and sister duo of Sadie and Erik Bjornsen,\u00a0and Brian Gregg, who grew up in the valley but now resides in Minnesota.&nbsp; What are the odds? There 230 members of the U.S. Olympic team.&nbsp; The population &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/2014\/02\/09\/methow-valley-olympians-what-are-the-odds\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Methow Valley Olympians: What are the Odds?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-methow-valley"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1630"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1630\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dabacon.org\/caelifera\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}